The timing symmetry for the Feb 15th low is obviously off a few days, so far. However, the chart pattern still has the same look as 1995 market. The 1.2470 area was always the ideal price target for the low, it's just that it didn't hit when the timing suggested it might.
>50% retrace of prior wave is 1.2470 area (1995 market retraced 53% of prior wave before blow-off wave started).
>AB=CD price projection 1.2470 area (this is where current move down equals length of 10/31/11 down wave.
>1.2450 to 1.2470 area is chart support (11/1/11 high)
>Three different trend lines intersect 1.2450-80 area and should provide support for at least a bounce, even if the yen has topped.
For the moment I think the pattern still looks like a match of 1995 and I would still expect a low early this week followed by a bounce (38% to 61.8% retrace of down move - ideally 50%) and then a retest of the low on or around 3/9/12. This should then be followed by an up-leg into late June or early July for a final top in the 145 to 165 range (most likely around 153 to 158).
If, on the other hand, the yen closes under 1.2425, it would likely mean the pattern is breaking down. If that occurs, historically there is a back-test of the earlier broken trendline before the larger down move starts. That back-test, should it occur, would provide an opportunity to close out longs and go short. If we rally into Mar 9th, it may be making a top that should be sold. 3/9/12 is the next 233 td cycle, it is 89 tds from 10/31/11 high and 55 tds from the 12/19/11 low; so quite a fibonacci confluence on the 9th.
Kim Rice 2/20/12
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