Sunday, April 22, 2012
Yen Update 4/22/12
The first chart below shows an update to the yen since the last blog post. It appears it may have bottomed when the mid-March cycle low was due, although the mid-Feb timing that was anticipated did not produce a reversal (but may have kicked off an acceleration down). So far the yen has rallied a few weeks and, as of 3/20/12, has corrected .382 of that rally. Looking at previous up-legs in this larger rising wedge pattern that started in 2007, the current rally phase may end up looking somewhat similar to the Aug to Dec 2008 rally, though this is just a guess at this point. That rally [wave 1 (red) of wave 3] went 27.79 pts in 80 trading days and included 3 corrections of 54% along the way. The retracement of the current Mar 2012 rally could hold the 38.2% or could easily retrace 50% to 78% without invalidating the preferred count, which is wave 4 has bottomed and wave 5 is on its way up to a new high above the 2011 highs. The small red circles show where we may be in relation to the 2008 rally and first retracement. A break below the 118.89 low on 3/15/12 would call into question the entire scenario of an unfolding blow-off to the upside. The most likely target range for the end of wave 5 is the 140 to 144 area (by late June to mid July), with an outside chance of 162.
The other two charts show a zoom in of the 2008 rally and the current market price action.
Kim Rice 4/22/12
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Yen Elliott Wave Count and Support Levels
If the yen continues to trend lower than 120 to 119 area, the odds will increase significantly that a major top is in. Posted below are several charts with analysis and comments annotated on the charts.
Here is a long-term chart with my Elliott Wave count labeling.
Here is the same E-wave chart zoomed in a bit with some additional comments.
Below is a chart showing potential price support in the 119 to 120 area if the yen continues lower after the 233 day low due 3/9/12 +/- 2 trading days.
Lastly, here is a chart showing the futures position of small traders based on COT data. The data is delayed 2 weeks, so I suspect it is more extreme now with small traders at their largest short position in 5 years. There are no guaranties with anything in trading, but the last 5 years show that significant rallies ensue when the small traders get piled on the short side.
Kim Rice 3/10/12
Here is a long-term chart with my Elliott Wave count labeling.
Here is the same E-wave chart zoomed in a bit with some additional comments.
Below is a chart showing potential price support in the 119 to 120 area if the yen continues lower after the 233 day low due 3/9/12 +/- 2 trading days.
Lastly, here is a chart showing the futures position of small traders based on COT data. The data is delayed 2 weeks, so I suspect it is more extreme now with small traders at their largest short position in 5 years. There are no guaranties with anything in trading, but the last 5 years show that significant rallies ensue when the small traders get piled on the short side.
Kim Rice 3/10/12
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Yen's Last Stand
Posted below are daily charts of the 1990-1995 and 2007-2012 wedge patterns that appear quite similar, including the length of time and slope of the rising trend lines of each wedge. For now, the potential for a blow-off to new highs is still the favored interpretation, even though the yen broke under the 124.25 area mentioned in prior post. Additional analysis points to a very compelling target of 123 (+/- 30 ticks)for the low.
The long-term cycles pointing to potential timing for a low around 2/15/12 did not come in on schedule. However, there is a 233 trading day cycle coming up in early March. Interestingly, there was a 233 td cycle running through the 1990-95 wedge as well. The bottom line is that the basic fractal symmetry of the current wedge has not deviated significantly from the shape of the 1990-95 base pattern.
Analysis annotated on the charts shows some of the geometric symmetry that indicates the 123 area is potentially very important for a low in current down move. Even if the yen has topped and the trend is down, I would expect the 123 area to provide support for a decent rally. The last line in the sand, though, is the lower trend line of the current wedge pattern around the 121.80 area. If the yen closes under that line by more than 40 ticks, we should assume the pattern is breaking down and the blow-off to 145 or higher will not occur. Should that happen, long positions should be exited on retracement rallies. Presumably, the yen will rally out of the 233 td cycle due around 3/9/12 (+ or - a couple trading days). If we rally into 3/9/12, long positions should be exited and then wait for next cycle timing due around 4/10/12 to assess market.
Kim Rice 2/25/12
The long-term cycles pointing to potential timing for a low around 2/15/12 did not come in on schedule. However, there is a 233 trading day cycle coming up in early March. Interestingly, there was a 233 td cycle running through the 1990-95 wedge as well. The bottom line is that the basic fractal symmetry of the current wedge has not deviated significantly from the shape of the 1990-95 base pattern.
Analysis annotated on the charts shows some of the geometric symmetry that indicates the 123 area is potentially very important for a low in current down move. Even if the yen has topped and the trend is down, I would expect the 123 area to provide support for a decent rally. The last line in the sand, though, is the lower trend line of the current wedge pattern around the 121.80 area. If the yen closes under that line by more than 40 ticks, we should assume the pattern is breaking down and the blow-off to 145 or higher will not occur. Should that happen, long positions should be exited on retracement rallies. Presumably, the yen will rally out of the 233 td cycle due around 3/9/12 (+ or - a couple trading days). If we rally into 3/9/12, long positions should be exited and then wait for next cycle timing due around 4/10/12 to assess market.
Kim Rice 2/25/12
Monday, February 20, 2012
Yen update
The timing symmetry for the Feb 15th low is obviously off a few days, so far. However, the chart pattern still has the same look as 1995 market. The 1.2470 area was always the ideal price target for the low, it's just that it didn't hit when the timing suggested it might.
>50% retrace of prior wave is 1.2470 area (1995 market retraced 53% of prior wave before blow-off wave started).
>AB=CD price projection 1.2470 area (this is where current move down equals length of 10/31/11 down wave.
>1.2450 to 1.2470 area is chart support (11/1/11 high)
>Three different trend lines intersect 1.2450-80 area and should provide support for at least a bounce, even if the yen has topped.
For the moment I think the pattern still looks like a match of 1995 and I would still expect a low early this week followed by a bounce (38% to 61.8% retrace of down move - ideally 50%) and then a retest of the low on or around 3/9/12. This should then be followed by an up-leg into late June or early July for a final top in the 145 to 165 range (most likely around 153 to 158).
If, on the other hand, the yen closes under 1.2425, it would likely mean the pattern is breaking down. If that occurs, historically there is a back-test of the earlier broken trendline before the larger down move starts. That back-test, should it occur, would provide an opportunity to close out longs and go short. If we rally into Mar 9th, it may be making a top that should be sold. 3/9/12 is the next 233 td cycle, it is 89 tds from 10/31/11 high and 55 tds from the 12/19/11 low; so quite a fibonacci confluence on the 9th.
Kim Rice 2/20/12
>50% retrace of prior wave is 1.2470 area (1995 market retraced 53% of prior wave before blow-off wave started).
>AB=CD price projection 1.2470 area (this is where current move down equals length of 10/31/11 down wave.
>1.2450 to 1.2470 area is chart support (11/1/11 high)
>Three different trend lines intersect 1.2450-80 area and should provide support for at least a bounce, even if the yen has topped.
For the moment I think the pattern still looks like a match of 1995 and I would still expect a low early this week followed by a bounce (38% to 61.8% retrace of down move - ideally 50%) and then a retest of the low on or around 3/9/12. This should then be followed by an up-leg into late June or early July for a final top in the 145 to 165 range (most likely around 153 to 158).
If, on the other hand, the yen closes under 1.2425, it would likely mean the pattern is breaking down. If that occurs, historically there is a back-test of the earlier broken trendline before the larger down move starts. That back-test, should it occur, would provide an opportunity to close out longs and go short. If we rally into Mar 9th, it may be making a top that should be sold. 3/9/12 is the next 233 td cycle, it is 89 tds from 10/31/11 high and 55 tds from the 12/19/11 low; so quite a fibonacci confluence on the 9th.
Kim Rice 2/20/12
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Yen E-wave: Irregular running flat correction
It's too early to say for sure, but it appears the yen bottom may have come in during the overnight session (morning of the 15th). In the chart posted below I added a potential wave count following the top/bottom of 10/31/11. I'm labeling it as Wave 1 up (it looks like it subdivides into 5 waves), followed by an abc irregular running flat. An irregular running flat is a correction where the "b" wave makes a new high above the top of wave 1, and the "c" wave fails to make a new low below the bottom of the "a" wave. Using this count, wave 2 retraced exactly .786 of wave 1.
If the overnight low does not hold, the next projected support is at 76.90 and then all the way down to 74.90. Based on the timing analysis posted the last few days, we should not be making new lows after the 16th or 17th at the later (2 trading days after the cycle time window).
Kim Rice 2/15/12
If the overnight low does not hold, the next projected support is at 76.90 and then all the way down to 74.90. Based on the timing analysis posted the last few days, we should not be making new lows after the 16th or 17th at the later (2 trading days after the cycle time window).
Kim Rice 2/15/12
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Correction on yen timing projection
One of the charts posted on Feb 12th shows symmetry of a current projected 450 trading day low to low and an earlier period. Part of that time segment includes 73 trading days from the last peak prior to the 450 day low. Unfortunately I made a counting error, mainly because the current 450 trading day time segment started from a low that had two days back-to-back that printed the exact same low price. Counting from the first day of that low projects to 2/14/12, but counting from the second day of that low projects to 2/15/12. Also, after recounting the days from the last peak, I see that 73 trading days from 10/31/11 actually falls on 2/15/12. This has me leaning to 2/15 as the low, even though the other long-term cycle (3404 trading days) is pointing to 2/14/12. Bottom line is that if this market is making a low, it should bottom on the 14th or 15th (+/- 2 trading days).
Kim Rice
Kim Rice
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Yen analysis and closeup look at prior lows
Posted below is a series of charts with additional analysis (annotated on the charts) pointing to 2/14/12 as the ideal date for an important low that may lead to a final blow-off rally, possibly terminating around late June 2012. If this analysis is correct, the market should make a low in the 2/10 to 2/15/12 area. Per the potential analog with the 1995 market, there may be a deep retest or even a slight new low in mid March. There is no way to know if that will happen. None of the other cycles that point to this 2/14/12 area made new lows on retests when they bottomed in earlier iterations of the respective cycles. See long-term charts posted here: http://yentimeprice.blogspot.com/2012/02/yen-major-low-due-feb-1314-2012.html
Also included in the charts below are closeup views of important lows related to the current cycle low. Analyzing the pattern of prior lows should be instructive as to what should be expected in the pattern of the current low (if it shows up).
Kim Rice 2/12/12
Also included in the charts below are closeup views of important lows related to the current cycle low. Analyzing the pattern of prior lows should be instructive as to what should be expected in the pattern of the current low (if it shows up).
Kim Rice 2/12/12
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