Yen Elliott Wave Count and Support Levels

If the yen continues to trend lower than 120 to 119 area, the odds will increase significantly that a major top is in. Posted below are several charts with analysis and comments annotated on the charts.

Here is a long-term chart with my Elliott Wave count labeling.


Here is the same E-wave chart zoomed in a bit with some additional comments.


Below is a chart showing potential price support in the 119 to 120 area if the yen continues lower after the 233 day low due 3/9/12 +/- 2 trading days.


Lastly, here is a chart showing the futures position of small traders based on COT data. The data is delayed 2 weeks, so I suspect it is more extreme now with small traders at their largest short position in 5 years. There are no guaranties with anything in trading, but the last 5 years show that significant rallies ensue when the small traders get piled on the short side.


Kim Rice 3/10/12